Commentary: A disastrous poll puts Japanese politics on a shaky path

However, it is unclear whether the LDP will be willing to hold new elections as it holds its largest and longest election to find a new leader. The party is said to be wary of the chaos of the post-Koizumi era in the late 2000s; The constant cutting and replacement of leaders ultimately evaporated popular support and led to a loss of power in 2009.

It is also possible that no leader can avoid this outcome; In an alternate universe where Ishiba did not call a quick election, Yoshihiko Noda, the newly elected leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, might have had time to coordinate with other opposition parties and remove the LDP from power entirely.

There also aren’t many great candidates waiting in the wings. Sanae Takaichi, whom Ishiba defeated in last month’s runoff elections, is divisive. Shinjiro Koizumi, the third leading candidate in September’s ballot, might have been a better prospect for the party; But as the chief of election strategy presiding over this persecution, he is in no position to assert himself as leader (agreeing to take on this role may be another example of his not-so-smart political instincts).

But the LDP still has little time to reorganize. Upper house elections will be held next summer, and by then opposition parties will be able to form the alliances needed to win. Japan has little room for such periods of conquest. No matter how you measure it, Ishiba has no time for himself.