Myanmar’s military regime is on the brink of conflict with resistance forces

BANGKOK (AP) — Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in Myanmar’s northeast a year ago, quickly seizing huge swaths of territory, ending a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military and prompting others to attack across the country.

Control of the army appeared to be firmly secured by vast superiority in troops and firepower, as well as material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly backpedaling, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders admit will be difficult to retake.

“The military is on defense all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to rotate its units and then other parts are left defenseless,” said Connor Macdonald of the Privy Council. Myanmar advocacy group.

“In our view, there does not appear to be a viable path back for the army to regain the territory it has lost.”

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering an intensification of clashes with entrenched armed militias organized by ethnic minority groups that have been fighting for greater autonomy in Myanmar’s border regions for decades.

The military’s takeover also triggered the formation of pro-democracy militias known as the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, formed by elected MPs who were banned from taking their seats after the military came to power.

However, until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its start on 27 October, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to prevent major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and seized military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks on its western home state of Rakhine, and has since been joined by other militia groups and PDFs across the country.

Myanmar army pushed back to center of country

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control an area the size of a horseshoe. It begins in the west in Rakhine state, moves north, and then south to Kayah and Kayin states on the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw has retreated towards central Myanmar, towards the capital Naypyidaw and its largest city Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Ta’ang National Liberation Army spokesman Lway Yay Oo told The Associated Press. “We thought we would attack the military council together as much as we could, but it was easier than expected, so we managed to conquer it quicker.”

Meanwhile, the Tatmadaw suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an offensive in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 soldiers, including six generals; and the city of Lashio, home to the military’s Northeast Command.

Singapore-based Morgan Michaels said: “The 1027 attack was an extremely impressive, highly complex operation, and the use of drones played a big role because they managed to basically dismantle the army’s network of fire support bases in northern Shan.” Analyst from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which runs the Myanmar Conflict Map project.

“And later, when the army’s artillery support eroded, they were able to breach more difficult targets such as towns and battalion headquarters.”

A year later he said the army had been “greatly weakened”, but it was too early to write that off.

The army was weakened but not defeated

The Tatmadaw managed to recapture the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the early days of the 1027 offensive, fended off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah province, and maintained its administrative mandate. Control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after stopping an attack by an ethnic group with the help of rival militias.

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon ends, backed by some 30,000 new troops and full air superiority since the start of conscription in February.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city in the center of the country.

Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army said that where they might have been outgunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the past year.

“We have military experience on our side, and we can strengthen the combat operation based on this experience,” he said.

The military regime’s spokesman, Thet Swe, acknowledged that it would be a difficult process for the Tatmadaw to oust the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territories it captured.

“We can’t undo this in a year,” he said in a response to questions emailed to the AP. “However, I hope that in the next two or three years I will give you a joyful message.”

Civilian casualties increase as the military turns to indiscriminate attacks

As the army faced adversity in ground combat, it began to turn increasingly to indiscriminate air and artillery attacks; This has resulted in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from air strikes and a 170% increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive. It started according to a report prepared by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights last month.

Isabel Todd, coordinator of the SAC-M group, said the Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians it believes support resistance militias, a tactic that has led to more turning against them.

“It doesn’t seem to have the impact they want,” he said. “This makes them hated even more by the public and really strengthens their resolve to make sure this is the end of the Myanmar military as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying militia groups were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the conflict, and according to the UN, there are now a total of more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar and approximately 18.6 million people in need of assistance.

At the same time, Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Myanmar, also said that only 1/3 of the 2024 humanitarian response plan is funded, hindering aid distribution.

“The humanitarian outlook for next year is grim and we anticipate that the worsening situation will have a major impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

But Salai Htet Ni, a spokesman for the Chin National Front, whose armed wing is the Tatmadaw, said the offensive had eased pressure in some areas, such as northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and has previously been the focus of many Tatmadaw operations. He joined the fight with the army.

“The military convoys that went to the mountains of China in October last year were withdrawn,” he said. “There was almost no major military activity as a result of Operation 1027.”

Success creates new tensions between resistance groups

As the front expands, militias appear to be pushing beyond their own ethnic areas; Just as the Rakhine-based Arakan Army captured the Chin town of Paletwa in January, which led to some friction between the groups, which the Tatmadaw has hinted at possible conflict in the future. eventually falls.

In the Paletwa case, Salai Htet Ni said his group was pleased that the AA had received it from the Tatmadaw, but added that negotiations needed to be held before they could begin operating on Chinese territory and that the AA should bring in Chin forces to assist. Manage the region.

“It is imperative that negotiations be held for these regional management issues,” he said. “However, we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not through military means.”

Currently, there is a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups focused on a common enemy, but this has not translated into common goals, said Aung Thu Nyein, communications director at the Myanmar Strategy and Policy Institute.

If the Tatmadaw falls, it could lead to the disintegration of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and regional differences.

“From what I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “It is unlikely that the resistance will overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to the Syria scenario.”

China’s interests and ties to both sides complicate the picture

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 attack, which turned out to be a successful attempt to largely stop organized criminal activity flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood group to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan; This ceasefire lasted five months until the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the agreement. truce.

China was unhappy with this development, closing border crossings, cutting off electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures to end the war that have so far failed.

Support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar calling on the powerful United Wa State Army, which was not involved in the 1027 offensive or related conflicts, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang. According to leaked details of the August meeting, which were widely reported in local media, the National Liberation Army will stop the renewed offensive.

But there is no evidence that the UWSA did this.

“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance are somehow agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they pursue regardless of whether China wants them to do it, and that’s evident in the incredible pressure that China has put on them lately.”

Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the opposition National Unity Government, said the resistance was less vulnerable to external influences because of grassroots support.

“No matter who puts pressure on us, we win thanks to the power of the people,” he said.