What is the Stream Now ‘Hit’ Rating?

“The stream is back, baby!” a network president recently shouted Diversity. And actually they are not wrong. After last year’s disastrous decline, when Hollywood strikes led to a mostly improvised lineup, the networks are finally back to full strength. Despite a messy launch disrupted by elections, extreme weather events and a media business in freefall, the broadcaster has reason to have some pep in its step.

Of course, Fall TV isn’t what it used to be, where the only match in town was broadcast. But as the industry adapts to a new normal in how viewers consume television, prime time series are showing real resilience. As all the data came in, there was surprising interest in the traditional Big Four’s new fares.

ABC’s “High Potential” became an instant hit, increasing viewership week after week with its first three episodes — the first time a streaming show had done so since Fox’s “Empire” in 2015. On CBS, “matlock” impressed executives so much that they picked it up for Season 2 after two episodes, while “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” also thrived in its second week (and has already earned a renewal). NBC’s Reba McEntire comedy “Happy’s Place” had a strong opening Friday, a night when networks mostly gave up. And Fox was encouraged by first-week returns for John Wells’ new product “Rescue: HI-Surf.”

Judging by overnight or live+same-day Nielsen ratings, it seems a bit silly to call any of these entries a success. Now, early ratings tend to be dismal, which shouldn’t come as a shock: Viewers changed their television habits a long time ago, and first-night viewership totals are just the beginning of a long tail. “Everything is successful these days, nothing is successful,” says Steve Kern, NBC’s senior vice president of content planning, acquisitions and strategy.

Kern says decisions can’t be made based on live+same-day numbers, but they are a starting point. “There’s a lot of original programming coming out every day from everyone, and people are on YouTube,” he says. “So for a few days or a week you can’t read anything about how things are going.”

So what’s a good starting trick? Of course, everything is relative: There is the time period, competition, program type, entry. (The NFL, for example, will feature a huge audience, but it’s impossible to read that as a success.) The ratings trajectory of “High Potential” gives an indication of what counts as a success: The show debuted in 2015. Tuesday, September 17, 10 p.m. – With 3.59 million viewers and a 0.35 rating in adults, it’s a tough time slot for viewers to catch up on what they usually miss. 18-49 demo.

Another example is “Happy’s Place,” which pleasantly surprised NBC by opening on Friday, Oct. 18, with 4.03 million viewers and a 0.35 rating among adults 18-49. In its timeslot premiere on Thursday, Oct. 17, “Matlock” averaged 6.38 million viewers (with a 0.36 audience in the demo), while the series launch of “Georgie and Mandy’s First Marriage” averaged 6.56 million viewers and 0.47 million viewers. demo. (CBS is not currently a Nielsen subscriber, but those ratings are still available to competitors.)

Think of these numbers as new live + same day comparisons. But what about time-shifted usage via DVRs and VOD (yes, those are still around) and performance on streamers like Hulu, Paramount+, and Peacock? Starting this year, Nielsen is providing expanded multiplatform numbers to its subscribers; so for the first time the networks can get a better look at how their competitors’ schedules are progressing in the coming weeks.

At that point, if you’re seeing a seven-day multiplatform number of 9 or 10 million or more viewers, you’ve got something like “Happy’s Place” or “High Potential” that a pretty large audience is actually clicking on. . And after 35 days, some shows, like ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” in Season 4, can average 20 million viewers and even a 2, 3 or 4 rating in the demo.

“Live plus same day numbers do not remotely reflect the success of scripted programming. “We’re seeing tremendous interest in playback, both on DVR and on Hulu and our direct-to-consumer platforms,” says Ari Goldman, senior vice president of content strategy and planning at ABC. Add in multiplatform ratings and some shows attract audiences that a network in the 2000s would be proud of. “You’re hitting numbers that we thought were pretty solid 15 years ago.”

You could say this fall’s “High Potential” found the networks in the “Place of Happiness.”