Why Bexar County’s ‘record’ vote might not be what it seems

On November 1, 2024By Karl

Despite long queues to vote higher than usual in-person early voting Looking at numbers in the first days after the polls opened, local political analysts on both sides of the aisle say turnout in Bexar County actually underperformed expectations for a high-profile presidential election.

Rapid population growth has led to an increase in the number of registered voters in Bexar County and It was 40% higher on the first day of in-person early voting More than the first day of early voting in 2020.

“It’s exciting because we’re breaking records in terms of numbers,” said San Antonio political consultant Laura Barberena, who owns the firm Viva Politics. “But in politics we often don’t look at raw numbers, we look at percentages.”

In terms of percentages, Barberena said voter turnout in Bexar County this year wasn’t much different than other elections.

“I think we’ll get to (about) 57% (total turnout in Bexar County), which, realistically, is pretty underperforming in this type of election,” he said.

Early voting will end at 20:00 on Friday..

From now on, voters have another chance. They cast their votes on Election DayOn Tuesday, November 5, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

One pre-election panel On Thursday, political actors on the left and the right had different ideas about what these final days might be like.

Among the factors to consider when comparing 2024 to 2020 is that early voting was extended an extra week in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ana Ramón, executive director of the progressive group Annie’s List.

Credit: Source: Texas Secretary of State

Mail ballots have also been given higher priority during the pandemic.

“What we’re seeing across the state — I would say more on the Democratic political side of the aisle — is what our people have kind of been waiting for,” Ramón said.

“That could change, especially if a lot of what we assume nationwide happens in Texas, which is if we see a steady increase heading into the weekend and then into Election Day,” he said.

Kelton Morgan, a Republican strategist whose political firm CSG Inc. directs voter outreach in San Antonio, said early voting data in Bexar County right now is hardly “indicative of a blue wave.”

“The most interesting thing I see is that the people who vote are the people who always vote,” he said. “There is not a large enough increase in the number of first-time voters to change the dynamic of a typical election.”

Bexar County under the spotlight

Turning to raw numbers, Morgan said total votes cast in Texas after nine days of statewide early voting were down about 1.5 million from 2020.

That is unlikely to be the case in Bexar County.

“In general, thismetro statistical area) is the fastest growing county in the country, so we’re going to have bigger raw numbers than we have,” Morgan said of Bexar County.

From the Democrats’ perspective, Ramón said to achieve a statewide victory, 42% of the overall electorate would need to come from bluer areas in Texas’ four largest counties — Dallas County, Travis County (home to Austin), Harris County (home to Houston). ‘s home) and Bexar County.

“I think we’re at 38% or 39% right now,” he said. While that may seem close, he added, he’s “a few points away” in Texas by 500,000 to 600,000 votes.

But over the long term, Ramón said the state’s population shifts mean that Texas — and especially its large urban counties — will likely grow. National remains a top priority for Democratseven if unheard of expenses this year’s U.S. Senate race falls short.

“40 percent of our state is Latino. We have the largest African American population in the country. “We have the fastest Southeast Asian population growth in the country,” Ramón said. “So I think there are national organizations that are truly looking at Texas.”

He added that turning Texas into a more reliable swing state and/or one where the Democratic US presidential candidate can win is essential to the future of the party.

“No matter what happens this election cycle, we must either change the map and route of the Electoral College or expand it,” he said.