South Korea divided over arming Ukraine after North Korean deployment

South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol is considering directly providing arms to Ukraine in response to North Korea sending troops to Russia’s front line; this is a potentially consequential shift in the conflict.

Seoul has previously resisted calls from its western allies to draw on vast military weapons stockpiles, preferring to contribute to Kiev’s war effort through non-lethal aid. But US officials say North Korea’s deployment to Russia’s western Kursk region he said on thursday According to analysts and diplomats, the number could be as large as 8,000 soldiers, changing this calculation.

Yoon and other senior officials in Seoul have offered to send troops to North Korea, calling Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the conflict a threat to South Korea’s security. valuable battlefield experience. They also fear that Moscow might share advanced military technologies in exchange for Pyongyang’s support.

Yoon vowed to “not sit idle” in response to North Korea’s deployment. His office confirmed this week that Seoul plans to send a delegation to Ukraine to monitor North Korean forces following Tuesday’s meeting between Yoon and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

However, the possibility of directly supplying weapons to Ukraine is strongly opposed. South KoreaThe left-wing opposition, which has a majority in parliament, accuses the Yoon administration’s harsh stance against North Korea of ​​pushing Pyongyang into Moscow’s arms.

Park Chan-dae, chairman of the Democratic party, argued at a party rally last week that South Korea had no direct involvement in the issue, saying, “Arming Ukraine is an incredibly dangerous idea that treats people’s lives like pawns in a chess game.” result war.

“South Korea should not be involved in a proxy war with North Korea,” Yoon said. . . in a distant country,” Park said, adding that deepening Seoul’s involvement would “risk starting a military conflict on the Korean peninsula.”

“The South Korean government is caught between foreign partners who want it to do more and an opposition that wants it to do less,” said Jeongmin Kim, chief analyst at Seoul-based information service Korea Pro.

South Korea’s decades-long preparations for a possible renewal of hostilities with its northern foe, combined with the formidable production capacity of its defense industry, have created a large stockpile of weapons, including artillery shells, tanks, howitzers and surface-to-surface missiles.

US ally South Korea regularly attends NATO summits and supplies many of its members. Analysts said the weapons would be largely compatible with weapons already in operation among Ukrainian forces.

“South Korea’s support for Ukraine could change the course of the entire conflict,” said Henry Haggard, a senior adviser at the consulting firm WestExec Advisors, who served as minister-adviser for political affairs at the US embassy in Seoul between 2021 and 2023.

“Not only are Korean companies producing world-class weapons to help Ukraine, they also have the production capacity to deliver essential weapons at a pace that can make a difference when they are needed most,” he added.

South Korea provided indirect support to Ukraine by replenishing US stocks of 155 mm artillery shells delivered to Kiev. “European governments know that South Korea supplies Ukraine with more artillery shells than all European countries combined, even through third countries,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King’s College London.

Zelenskyy said on Thursday that he would send a representative to Seoul to make “detailed” requests for artillery and air defense systems in light of North Korea’s deployment to Russia.

But Seoul has so far refused to launch direct lethal aid, citing the country’s Foreign Trade Act, which restricts arms exports “except for peaceful purposes.”

Pacheco Pardo said there was “an agreement between Seoul and Moscow that South Korea would not provide direct lethal aid to Ukraine, while Russia would limit its support to North Korea.”

Russia’s ambassador to Seoul declared this year that South Korea is “one of the friendliest countries among non-hostile countries.”

But Pacheco Pardo said the deal “is now over.”

“I think the Yoon government will provide lethal aid to Ukraine if it has evidence that Russia is increasing its support for North Korea, especially the transfer of technologies that could help Pyongyang develop missile, satellite, space and other high-tech programs.” he said.

Russia refused to comment Thursday on whether it was aiding North Korea’s missile program, hours after Pyongyang said. tested its last intercontinental ballistic missileHwasong-19.

But a day earlier, during a meeting in Washington with US defense secretary Lloyd Austin, South Korean defense minister Kim Yong-hyun said there was a “high chance” that North Korea would seek Russian defense technologies in exchange for troop deployments.

A Seoul-based European diplomat said the South Korean government’s position on arms supplies had “changed” since North Korea’s deployment, but “very, very cautiously,” adding that Seoul would likely consider the outcome of the U.S. presidential election before making a decision. He said he would wait. on your next step.

Jeongmin Kim said the Yoon administration was preparing to argue that providing lethal aid did not require parliamentary support and would not violate the Foreign Trade Law, on the grounds that arming Ukraine would contribute to international peace by helping end the war.

Such a move is likely to face public opposition. According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted just after it was revealed that North Korean troops were in Russia, only 13 percent of South Koreans surveyed supported military support for Ukraine, while 66 percent said the support should be limited to non-military and humanitarian aid.

But Yang Uk, a defense expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, argued that direct military support would help Seoul repay its historic debt to countries that sent troops to defend South Korea during the Korean war in the 1950s.

“When North Korea invaded us, we had the same experience that Ukraine is going through now,” Yang said. “Then the world came to help us, so the least we can do now is contribute to the global order in return.”

Additional reporting by Christopher Miller in Kiev