Pollster talks 2024 election trends and public sentiment

washington – On “Last 5,” Ipsos Head of Polling Cliff Young joins Jim Lokay to break down the latest polling data for the 2024 election. Addressing many topics from voter confidence to the possibility of post-election unrest, Young provided information about what the numbers reveal about America’s political climate.

Voter Confidence: Will Americans accept the result?

A majority of Americans, about 83%, say they would accept the results of the 2024 election no matter who wins, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-October. Although he called it “a good place to start,” he cautioned that partisanship could still affect public trust. “When you peel back the onion, there’s a lot more fragility there,” he added, noting there’s a small gap between Democrats and Republicans who are skeptical.

Divisions over election integrity

Young touched on sharp partisan divides over trust in election systems, explaining that another poll conducted by Ipsos and Reuters showed Republicans showing a significantly lower level of trust than Democrats. “We asked if people were concerned about election fraud, and we found that Republicans had less faith in the system than Democrats did,” Young said. he said. But he found it ironic that 57% of Republicans, compared to just 40% of Democrats, have confidence in the Electoral College, a system that has traditionally favored their party.

Violence concerns and weak democracy

Polls also reveal that Americans are unhappy with the state of US democracy; In an Ipsos/Scripps News poll of Americans 18 and older, 56% rate democracy as weak. Many predict potential violence linked to the election results, with 62% agreeing there could be unrest. “People expect it. It’s kind of a given,” Young said.

The most important issues for voters: Economy and democracy

Looking at what’s driving voters, Young noted that Ipsos Core Political polling shows the economy remains the top concern across parties, followed by “threats to democracy,” a priority for Democrats. Immigration, supported by Republicans, ranked third. Young summarized: “Threats to the economy and democracy are paramount concerns, and each is used strategically by both campaigns.”

Current Situation: Trump advantage and tight polls

Young noted that in the aforementioned ABC News/Ipsos poll, Donald Trump has a steady advantage on economic issues and an eight-point lead over Vice President Harris in swing states. While trends show a slight edge for Trump, Young emphasized the unpredictability of the race. “This is Trump’s 50-50 trend, but my faith is low,” he admitted, explaining how easily changes can happen.

A long election night?

Finally, Young hinted that election night could last for days. “If it’s too close, neither side will give up. I think it will take a week or more to resolve this,” he predicted.