Survey reveals skepticism about US election figures, especially among Republicans

On November 1, 2024By Karl

The nation’s deep partisan divisions extend to confidence in vote counts for this year’s election, as a new poll finds that Republicans are far more skeptical than Democrats that votes will be counted accurately.

Voters generally show more distrust in nationwide voting results than in counts conducted by their local election offices, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About half of Republican registered voters are “a great deal” or “quite a bit” confident that votes will be counted accurately by local election officials, and about 4 in 10 say the same about the vote count in their state, but only about a quarter are at least “confident” about the nationwide count. quite trusting.

However, Republican voters’ overall level of trust in all three is lower than Democratic voters. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats say they have at least “a fair amount” confidence that votes will be counted accurately across the country, in their state or by local election officials.

This year’s election marks the first presidential race since former President Donald Trump launched a campaign of lies about a stolen 2020 election; It’s a narrative that undermines public confidence in the election results among a broad swath of conservative voters, even though there is no evidence of widespread fraud.

Election experts have warned that if Trump loses, he could once again lay the groundwork to contest the election.

David Farrington, a 78-year-old conservative who lives in Fort Worth, Texas, said he doesn’t trust mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes; Both are common targets of voter fraud allegations and election conspiracies that seek to sow distrust in election results.

“It’s not the number of votes I’m worried about,” Farrington said. “I have full faith in all the precincts and their ability to count the ballots there. But the ballots – we don’t know if they’re accurate or not.” whether legitimate or not.”

Ruth Edwards, a 28-year-old kindergarten teacher who lives in Tampa, Florida, said she saw “no evidence of election fraud.”

“There are people who are just upset that their candidate lost and are claiming fraud without any evidence,” Edwards, a Democrat, said. “This is ridiculous.”

Voters overall are more likely to believe votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by local election officials or in their state rather than nationwide, according to the survey. Nearly 6 in 10 voters are “a great deal” or “quite a bit” confident that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local election officials or state; and about half say that about the votes being counted nationwide.

In each case, about a quarter have “moderate” confidence. Nearly 3 in 10 people say they have “little” or no confidence in the nationwide count, while fewer say they have “little” or no confidence in the count conducted by their state or local officials.

Drew Inman, a 31-year-old Republican who works in law enforcement in New Jersey, said he doubts the votes will be counted accurately at any level, especially in counties outside his own.

“I certainly have more confidence in my vote being counted at the local level than I do in the national vote count,” he said. “… When you go to national votes, a lot more people are involved and that can create corruption.”

Although the ballots include races for federal offices such as the presidency or Congress, the United States does not hold national elections like other countries. All elections are conducted by states and administered by local election offices in thousands of counties, cities, and counties.

Election officials recognize that many skeptical voters tend to point to other precincts with unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Some groups tried to dispel this perception by emphasizing that elections are held at the local level in each state.

“The challenge is that when there are national elections, people can often throw election professionals from another state under the bus, and that doesn’t work,” said Tammy Patrick, a former election official now with the National Association of Election Officials.

Older voters have more confidence than younger voters in vote counting at all levels, including counts conducted by local election officials. About half of voters ages 18 to 29 have at least “somewhat” confidence that votes will be counted accurately by their state or local election officials, while about 7 in 10 voters ages 60 and older have that confidence.

But the gap is smaller by the number of votes nationwide: About 4 in 10 voters ages 18 to 29 have at least “some” self-confidence, compared to about half of voters ages 60 and older.

Bill Sanchez, a 29-year-old criminal defense attorney in Monroe County, Pennsylvania, said older voters watch and participate in the election process longer, giving them more time to build trust.

“Young voters have less experience voting and have spent much of their lives surrounded by this kind of misinformation that we are seeing more and more of,” Sanchez said. “… This just paves the way for young voters to become more distrustful.”

About 6 in 10 Republicans say ineligible people voting is a big problem in U.S. elections, while 2 in 10 Democrats say it is a big problem in U.S. elections. Democrats and Republicans have the sharpest disagreements over whether ballots sent through the U.S. Postal Service or by mail can be accurately counted. Nearly 6 in 10 Democrats are “extremely” or “very confident” that mail-in ballots returned via these methods will be counted accurately; Republicans are about 1 in 10.

Democrats, meanwhile, are much more concerned about voter suppression than Republicans are. About half of Democrats say voter suppression is a big problem, while about a third of Republicans say

And nearly 4 in 10 voters are concerned about other countries interfering with U.S. voting systems or election results; this is slightly lower than in February 2020, when the question was last asked. This is something independent voters will be at least a little more concerned about. Roughly more than Democrats or Republicans.

Sanchez, the Pennsylvania attorney, said he was more concerned about voter suppression than widespread fraud or ballot miscounting and called for expanding early voting and mail-in voting to “make voting as accessible as possible.” He also worries about the potential for false claims of voter fraud to incite violence and unrest and said he hopes election officials’ attempts to inform voters ahead of the election will help.

“There is a lot of misinformation and disinformation coming from malicious actors who are trying to sow distrust around election security and take advantage of the fact that people don’t always understand everything about the process,” Sanchez said. “When we understand things, we end up fearing them.”