Despite the deadly attack, there is still hope for a rapprochement between Türkiye and the PKK | PKK News

Istanbul, Türkiye – Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli was unlikely to shake hands with politicians from the pro-Kurdish DEM party while walking on the tribune of the Turkish Grand National Assembly on October 1.

The MHP leader, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been vocally opposed to Kurdish demands for greater rights. He called Kurdish politicians “terrorists” and accused them of being linked to the PKK, an armed group listed as a “terrorist organization” by Turkey and the West. He also called for DEM’s predecessor to be banned.

The promise of new peace talks between Turkey and Kurdish fighters who have been waging an insurgency for 40 years was called into question after an attack on an aviation facility near the capital Ankara last month.

Bahçeli later said that this move was a “message of national unity and brotherhood”.

Weeks later, he raised the possibility that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who has been serving a life sentence since 1999, could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded his organization.

And the very next day, on October 23, the attack on the TAI aviation and defense company, which killed five people and killed two attackers, threatened to reverse the small steps taken.

As part of its effort to demand greater autonomy for the Kurds living in southeast Turkey, TAI produces civilian and military aircraft, including unmanned aerial vehicles, which are vital in the fight against the PKK, which has been fighting against the Turkish state since the 1980s.

PKK claimed responsibility for the TUSAS attack two days later. The statement stated that the raid was not related to the latest “political agenda” and that it was planned long ago because TAI weapons “killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, in Kurdistan.”

‘Historical window of opportunity’

But the attack may not be the death knell of a potential rapprochement as some initially feared. Instead, there appear to be underlying elements of desire on both sides to find a solution to a protracted conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people.

DEM immediately announced that they were against the TAI attack, condemned the attack and said that it was “meaningful” that this took place “while the Turkish society is talking about a solution and the possibility of dialogue is emerging.”

Even after the attack, Erdogan described the developments as a “unique opportunity”.

While the President praised Bahçeli’s “will to focus on the right path” in his speech on October 30, he said, “Those who read the MHP leader’s calls in this context see the historical window of opportunity.”

DEM is reportedly currently trying to create a formal structure for peace talks involving senior figures from political parties.

DEM Party Deputy İbrahim Akın described Bahçeli’s statements about Öcalan as “a sign of a new era” and an indicator of the government’s approach.

“But there are still many things that are uncertain and create hesitation,” he said. “We want a transparent process to be carried out, involving all parties and all political actors.”

Reason

Following the Ankara attack, Türkiye launched a wave of air strikes against the PKK in Iraq and Syria.

The group has been carrying out its activities in Turkey from the Qandil Mountains in Northern Iraq since the late 1990s. The Turkish military has severely restricted the PKK’s activities inside Türkiye in recent years, establishing dozens of bases on the Iraqi side of the border and conducting cross-border air strikes.

Meanwhile, in Northeast Syria, Turkey also targeted the PKK-affiliated People’s Protection Units (YPG), which the United States has supported in the fight against ISIS since 2015 and provides weapons and training. America’s support for the armed Kurdish group has strained Turkey’s relations with the United States.

Although Türkiye does not recognize any distinction between the PKK and the YPG, most Western states have refused to list the YPG as a “terrorist” group. Speaking after the TUSAS attack, Erdoğan said that two PKK attackers crossed from Syria to Turkey and included the YPG.

Some commentators see the rationale behind the latest push for talks as Erdogan’s desire to change Turkey’s current constitution, which would not allow him to run again unless early elections are called.

DEM, the third largest party in parliament, could provide valuable support.

“The ruling coalition will probably try to change the constitution to remove Erdogan’s time limits,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul Sabancı University. “They probably want to split the opposition coalition and absorb, if not directly the Kurdish political movement, then at least some Kurdish voters, especially conservative Kurdish voters in Southeastern Anatolia.”

The idea of ​​an agreement between the Turkish government under Erdoğan and the PKK is perhaps not as far-fetched as it might seem at first. In its early years in power in the 2000s, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) made a strong effort to grant greater rights to Turkey’s Kurds, a long-excluded group. The peace process, launched in 2013, appeared to come close to success at times before failing in 2015.

The current move also comes at a time of extreme turmoil in the Middle East. US support for Israel reportedly offends Kurdish groups, including the PKK, which has historical ties to Palestinian armed groups. DEM is highly critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Donald Trump’s second presidency will also likely eliminate YPG protection with the withdrawal of US troops from Syria.

Esen said Turkey may be taking a preventive step to “fill the political gap that has emerged in the Middle East and advance in the region.”

“Favorable conditions, including regional actors preoccupied with other crises and the weakened state of the PKK, point to an opportunity for progress,” said Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund.

However, he questioned whether Öcalan, who has been kept incommunicado in recent years, has enough influence over the PKK to direct the process.

Ünlühisarcıklı said, “In addition, there are limits to what the Turkish public can tolerate in negotiations with the PKK, and Öcalan’s speech in the Turkish Grand National Assembly falls outside these limits.”

It was revealed that approximately three quarters of the participants in the survey conducted by the Social Sciences Institute on October 24 were against the release of Öcalan. In a less scientific measure of public reaction, football fans at a Fenerbahce match in Istanbul shouted insults at the PKK leader after the Ankara attack.