Nebraska’s abortion ballot measures could increase voter turnout and confusion

Duel precautions regarding abortionInitiative 439 and Initiative 434 propose substantially different legislation to amend the state constitution. The first would protect abortion rights up to fetus viability, roughly 24 weeks, while the second would seek to build on existing state restrictions to ban abortions in the second and third trimesters, except in cases of rape, incest or medical emergencies.

But the two measures are also expected to increase voter turnout in Nebraska. Direct impact on the presidential election and party control of Congress.

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For either initiative to pass, the ballot measure must receive a majority of votes and the support of at least 35% of those voting. If both measures pass, the one with the most votes will win.

The state Supreme Court approved both proposed changes in mid-September, setting in motion the unusual situation of having competing initiatives on the ballot.

Initiative 439 was drafted earlier this year in response to the state government’s ban on abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Shortly thereafter, anti-abortion groups countered with their own initiative that would not expand the restrictions in their current form but would allow lawmakers to add other bans at a later time, making it harder for the legislature or courts to reverse that ban. restrictions.

Abortion rights advocates say the effort is largely intended to sow confusion.

“They don’t really care about 434 being passed. They are trying to confuse voters. “And we know they’re doing it because they don’t have a popular view,” said Allie Berry, the Protect Our Rights campaign manager. Washington Comptroller.

Berry pointed out that supporters of the Protect Women and Children campaign, one of the main groups behind Initiative 434, misrepresented their proposals while getting voters to sign their petitions. According to Berry, some pollsters misled voters by saying their initiatives would protect access to abortion; This led to more than 300 signatories submitting statements requesting that their names be removed from the petition.

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Members of the Protect Women and Children campaign denied these efforts, saying: Washington Comptroller He said pollsters were instructed to read to voters an object statement that made it clear that the change would apply only to “second and third trimester abortions.”

The group also rejected claims that pollsters told voters the petition was an abortion rights measure. They also noted that more than 205,000 signatures were verified and approved by the secretary of state, a figure that far exceeded the minimum threshold of 136,000 even if unsolicited signatures had been submitted.

“439 is an extreme measure funded by out-of-state activists that would grant men abortion rights, puts individuals who are not licensed physicians in a position to influence women in crisis, and protects human traffickers and abusers,” spokeswoman Brenna Grasz said. Protect Women and Children, he said in a statement. “434 is a common-sense measure that makes exceptions for rape and incest as well as medical emergencies, protects parental rights, and protects unborn children in the second and third trimesters.”

Still, Berry argued that efforts to further restrict access to abortion risk “muddying the waters and confusing voters,” despite widespread support.

“The majority of Nebraskans agree that no matter what they personally think about abortion, it is not something the government should intervene in,” Berry said. “The opposition also knows this.”

Fifty percent of Nebraskans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while only 46% say it should be illegal. Research by Pew Research Center.

The split in support leaves things unclear about the future of abortion access as voters cast their ballots in the days leading up to election day.

As a result, both groups have poured millions of dollars into their own advertising campaigns and social media messages to educate voters about rival measures.

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Both groups invested heavily in ads featuring Nebraskans who support or oppose abortion restrictions. One such ad highlights Omaha resident Kimberly Paseka and her latest medical emergency caused by confusion over the state’s current abortion law.

Paseka said that she went to the doctor when she was pregnant with her second child and received the news that her baby would not survive this pregnancy. But the doctor was reluctant to perform an abortion due to new state restrictions and instead advised Paseka to go home and wait out the miscarriage.

It took three weeks for Paseka to return, during which time he said he was “experiencing pain and bleeding.”

“I needed medical attention but was sent home because of the confusing abortion ban. “This can happen to anyone.” he said in the ad. “So please vote 434 for and 439 to free the government from personal medical decisions.”

Meanwhile, anti-abortion advocates have released their own advertising campaign, which includes statements from six female student-athletes at the University of Nebraska urging voters to vote in favor of Initiative 434.

“Nebraska, it’s time to come off the bench,” said Jordyn Bahl, a junior on the school’s softball team. he said in the commercials.

But the million-dollar endorsement could do more than determine access to abortion because it could increase voter turnout among Democrats in a state that could have an outsized impact on presidential elections.

Nebraska operates under the congressional district method; This means the state allocates two electoral delegate votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote, and then allocates one electoral vote to the candidate who wins the popular vote in each congressional district. Nebraska has three congressional districts, resulting in four popular vote races in the state, which often results in split election results.

As a result, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has one of the most coveted electoral votes in the country and could decide the November election if it falls to just one vote, which has become a real possibility with the shakeup of the electoral map. .

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That’s good news for Democrats because the district includes most of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metro area, a blue dot that’s otherwise red. The district voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Joe Biden in 2020, and the party largely expects it to support Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov. 5.

The district is also in the heart of war Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) is looking to take control of the House as he is locked in a tight re-election fight against Democratic challenger Tony Vargas. The race will be treated as a draw and could determine which side wins control of the lower house.