What happens in the days after the American elections?

Few Americans thought much about the mechanics of the election until Mr. Trump and his lawyers furiously tried to overturn the loss to Mr. Biden. At every opportunity, they sought to subvert what had long been considered a pro-forma process. Mr. Trump’s allies alleged voter fraud in frivolous lawsuits, strong-armed local and state officials to change the tallies and failed, and tried to persuade Mike Pence, then Mr. Trump’s vice president, to block Congress from certifying the result. They tried and failed. That day, Mr. Trump’s supporters ransacked the Capitol.

If this year’s election is as close as polls suggest, you can expect another worrying few weeks to pass between November 5th and January 6th. Mr. Trump will likely declare victory before the news networks call the race, fueling outrage and misinformation. Ms. Harris’s better showing among voters who mail in ballots means her chances are likely to improve as counting progresses because mail-in ballots are typically slower to be counted. This incident occurred in Pennsylvania in 2020; where Mr. Trump’s initial lead was defeated by just over 80,000 votes, fueling conspiracy theories about election theft. Mr. Schmidt, then a local commissioner in Philadelphia, was targeted by Mr. Trump on Twitter for refusing to investigate the “mountain of corruption.” Incoming threats MAGA Followed by fans.

In 2020, it took news organizations four days to search for the state that provided enough college votes to clinch Mr. Biden’s victory. The delay was due in part to Pennsylvania officials preventing pre-processing of mail ballots before Election Day. They cannot remove ballots from their envelopes, verify signatures, or prepare ballots for machine counting. (Wisconsin is the only other swing state to similarly restrict preprocessing.) In 2020, amid the pandemic, 39% of votes were cast by mail in Pennsylvania. The share may not be that high this time.

In Pennsylvania, vote-by-mail counting, or “canvas,” begins at 7 a.m. on election day. Most counties in the state, because they receive state funding, are required to continue this without interruption until the work is done. In order to be counted, postal votes must be received by the time the polls close at 20:00 on election day.

States write laws and set parameters for election administration, but counties do the bulk of the work. John Jones, a former federal judge in Pennsylvania, says they’re like fiefdoms; There are more than 3,000 of them in America. County commissioners will select polling places, hire staff and oversee the polling. They then report their counts to state officials, who add them all up and certify the statewide result. Certification means to certify the accuracy and completeness of a census; Until then, refunds are not official.

Mr. Trump’s allies, who claim without evidence that the 2020 election was rigged, have been excluded from top statewide jobs in Arizona, Pennsylvania and even swing states run by Republicans. As a result, state officials are unlikely to block certification if Mr. Trump loses. However, some rogue officials at the district level may not issue the certificate, thus hindering the rest of the process. The courts ruled that their duties were “ministerial” and not discretionary. Under Pennsylvania law, that means prosecutors and courts have no authority to investigate fraud or errors. In October, a state judge in Georgia ruled that county election boards “cannot act as investigators, prosecutors, juries and judges” if they suspect fraud and must certify it after the count is completed.

But even unsuccessful efforts can mean long delays. During Pennsylvania’s 2022 primary, three mostly Republican county boards refused to certify the results because they decided mail ballots with incorrect dates, contrary to the state’s guidelines, did not need to be counted. Courts ordered boards to include those ballots, and they complied more than three months after the primary. (The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has since ruled that incorrectly dated mail ballots should not be counted.) A similar delay this year would conflict with the timeline for certifying state votes required by federal law.

That law requires governors — in Pennsylvania’s case, Democrat Josh Shapiro — to submit statewide results by Dec. 11. These are called “certificates of determination”. To comply with this date, states are setting earlier dates for counties: In Pennsylvania, the date is November 25. Mr. Jones thinks some Pennsylvania counties could miss the deadline if they conduct recounts slowly, and he predicts Mr. Schmidt could seek a writ of mandamus in such cases. (In Pennsylvania, recounts are automatically triggered in any race where the margin of victory is half a point or less. Voters or candidates can request a recount from the courts if the margin is larger, but they usually must present evidence of fraud or error.)

Lawyers and courts are preparing to take action quickly. Under rules issued by Pennsylvania’s highest court, the time period for appealing a court decision has been shortened. What would normally take two or three months will happen in a few days, says Ben Geffen of the Public Interest Law Center in Philadelphia. When it comes to claims of voter fraud, courts have little patience for misleading claims.

Certificates of determination identify a state’s electors. They are representatives of the winning candidate’s party in each state and pledge to vote in the electoral college. Electors will gather in state capitals on December 17 to fulfill this ceremonial role. On January 6, Congress counts the electors’ votes and certifies the winner. Following the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers objected to Arizona and Pennsylvania’s votes; eight senators and 139 congressmen voted in favor of one or both objections. This time it will be more difficult: A federal law passed in 2022 raised the threshold for objecting from one member in each chamber to one-fifth of each member. Acceptance of an objection requires a majority on both.

The fact that the entire process seems so complicated is a product of federalism and an archaic electoral college system. The fact that he faces such hardship is a result of Mr. Trump’s attacks. Unlike four years ago, everyone is now adapting to vulnerabilities. “We won’t get caught with our pants down,” Mr. Geffen says. He adds that the biggest concern is disinformation and the distrust it creates. This problem cannot be solved by the courts. ■

Sources: Economist