War hopes in Ukraine fade no matter who wins US elections

Written by: Anastasiia Malenko and Tom Balmforth

KYIV (Reuters) – For many Ukrainians, the results of next week’s U.S. election and its impact on the war with Russia appear less important than before.

Battlefield casualties have accelerated in the east despite unprecedented military and financial aid from Democrats, and Ukraine has grown impatient with President Joe Biden’s reluctance to allow Western weapons to be unleashed on targets deep inside Russia.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, meanwhile, criticized the level of U.S. support for Kiev, refused to say he wanted Ukraine to win the war and promised to end the conflict if elected before taking office in January, without explaining how.

That has led some ordinary Ukrainians and officials to be less categorical about who they want to win the White House: Trump or Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

“If Harris wins, it will be a continuation of fake aid to Ukraine, which means they will talk and do nothing,” said Viktor Tupilka, 70, a former coal miner from the eastern region of Donetsk.

“If Trump wins, he will most likely push for an end to the war and give Ukraine a share of its territory,” Tupilka added, speaking in Kiev.

“In both cases, Ukraine loses (something). Our only hope is not to look at the election, but to think about how we will make a living, both with domestic resources and by other means.”

The United States has given tens of billions of dollars of military and financial aid to Ukraine, more than any other ally, since Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022.

That aid gave Ukraine a lifeline for its much smaller military, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said throughout the conflict that U.S. and Western support was too little, too late to turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor.

A senior European diplomat based in Kiev said Ukrainian officials were less worried about Trump’s victory than some expected, in part because Ukraine was losing territory despite the military and economic support it received.

“At least Trump can shake things up a bit,” the diplomat told Reuters.

The diplomat added that Trump’s intention to try to end the war in Ukraine before taking office would almost certainly require Washington to say or give Kiev something threatening to Russia.

But the uncertainty about what Trump will do to end the war is causing serious discomfort.

Kiev-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said Trump could increase aid to Ukraine and use economic pressure to force Russia to the negotiating table, but he could also threaten to cut aid to Ukraine.

“The main problem is that Trump promised to start negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine immediately after his victory, but we do not know on what terms,” ​​Fesenko said. he said.

WE SAVE BOTH CAMPS

Zelenskiy and his government have been careful to avoid publicly siding with one candidate over another and not alienating the eventual winner. Ukraine is confident of continued US support no matter who wins the election, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Thursday.

Zelenskiy, who met with Harris and Trump during his visit to the United States in September, said that the November 5 elections will affect Russia’s readiness for negotiations even before the winning candidate takes office.

“I think the United States will put forward this policy very quickly after the elections. According to the information I received from the candidates, this is a positive development from my meetings with them,” he said.

Moscow says it wants peace, but has set conditions that Kiev sees as unacceptable. Zelenskiy also underlined the need for a fair solution to the war and spoke of a summit later this year that could include a representative from Moscow.

Fesenko saw the promise of continued support from Harris’ camp as good news for Ukraine, but warned that the future pattern of US support if she wins the election was uncertain.

“Almost no one doubts that Biden will continue his policy of supporting Ukraine, but will this policy be more decisive or will Kamala Harris, for example, also be inclined to initiate negotiations to end the war?”

In addition to pressing to allow the use of Western missiles against targets inside Russia, Ukrainian officials have publicly noted problems with the prompt delivery of approved American aid and called on their allies to provide greater air defenses.

Vitaliy Novak, 53, a commercial director in the media industry, felt that the importance of the outcome of the US election was clearer than some other Ukrainians.

“Our future depends on what happens on November 5, nothing more, nothing less,” he said. “This will be a pivotal moment in how things develop; will they continue on the same path, or will we see a radical change?”

But amid the debate, many Ukrainians agree that it is difficult to find a quick resolution to the war after last year’s territorial losses, heavy military and civilian casualties, and Russia’s relentless attacks on energy infrastructure ahead of winter.

“On the one hand, a terrible end is better than a horror without end,” said 20-year-old Hlib Astahov, referring to Trump’s promise of a quick end to hostilities.

“On the other hand, I would not want this ongoing war, in which so much effort and the lives of our best have been expended, to end in some kind of fake peace because of our Western partners.”

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth in London; Additional reporting by Olena Harmash; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)