How Iran’s mountain fortress is changing the rules of the game in the Iran-Israel conflict.

On November 2, 2024By Karl

Deep within Iran’s rugged Zagros Mountains lies a military marvel that is reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East: the Eagle-44. Packed with long-range missiles, durable drones and fortified bunkers, this secret fortress isn’t just a strategic asset; This is a bold declaration in Iran’s shadow war with Israel. As regional tensions rise, the Eagle-44 is emerging as a powerful deterrent and a nightmare scenario for Israel’s defense planners.

What makes this underground base so imposing, and how could it escalate the Iran-Israeli conflict to unprecedented levels? Delve into the secret depths of Eagle-44 and discover why this secret base could redefine Middle East security forever.

What is Kartal 44?

The Eagle-44 missile base, which Iran introduced in July 2023, is a significant contribution to the country’s military infrastructure and reflects Tehran’s desire to strengthen its defense capabilities and create a strong deterrent against regional enemies, especially Israel. As tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate, marked by covert operations, cyber attacks and a protracted war for influence, the Eagle-44 base represents a strategic asset that could tip the balance. Here’s an in-depth look at how the Eagle-44 could play a key role in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, from its operational capabilities to its psychological impact on Israel’s defense strategy.

Strategic Role

The Iran-Israel conflict has become increasingly complex, with each country utilizing both conventional and unconventional warfare. With its superior air power and technological superiority, Israel has carried out many operations targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. In response, Iran has steadily expanded its missile and drone capabilities, developing underground facilities such as the Eagle-44 to protect its strategic assets from Israeli air strikes.

Located in the protective embrace of the Zagros Mountains, the Eagle-44 strengthens Iran’s capacity to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel or its allies in the event of conflict. The base’s strategic location and fortified design provide Iran with a credible counter-attack option and complicate Israel’s pre-emptive strike plans. Israel’s strategy relies on rapid and precise strikes against Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities; But with bases like Eagle-44, Iran gains the ability to withstand an initial attack and respond forcefully, potentially causing serious damage to Israeli assets.

Advanced Missiles Against Long-Range Threats

The Eagle-44 is equipped with a range of missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside Israel. The Hoveizeh cruise missile, one of Iran’s most advanced missiles, has a range of over 1,350 kilometers and can reach almost every point in Israel. The Raad-500 missile, known for its mobility and speed, is another powerful asset that allows Iran to launch rapid attacks with minimal warning. These missiles are equipped with precision guidance systems that increase Iran’s ability to accurately target critical Israeli military facilities, infrastructure and urban centers in the event of an escalation of hostilities.

Such long-range missile capabilities pose a direct threat to Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow missile defense systems. Although Israel’s defense architecture is very complex, it is not insurmountable. The sheer volume of missiles the Eagle-44 can store and launch from its fortified position increases the overwhelming potential of Israeli defenses, especially when combined with simultaneous attacks from other bases or allies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Drone Capabilities for Asymmetric Warfare

Iran has invested heavily in drone technology, and the Eagle-44 serves as a hub for both surveillance and combat drones. These drones are central to Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy, allowing it to conduct operations against Israel without directly engaging in air-to-air combat that would be dominated by Israel’s superior air force. Iran’s drones have previously been deployed against Israel and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, and are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

In Eagle-44, drones can serve multiple roles: gathering intelligence, attacking targets with minimal detection, and creating confusion in Israeli airspace. Drones could be deployed in swarms, potentially overwhelming Israeli radar systems and causing delays in response. Additionally, Iran can use these drones to probe for weaknesses in Israel’s air defenses, identify target vulnerabilities, and collect real-time data to aid missile strikes.

Survival and Endurance

One of the main benefits of the Eagle-44 is its survivability thanks to its location in the mountainous terrain of the Zagros mountain range. This environment provides significant natural protection against air strikes, including Israeli advanced bunker-busting bombs. Eagle-44’s hardened infrastructure, which includes underground missile silos, blast-proof shelters and advanced launch facilities, ensures that Iran’s strategic weapons remain operational even under constant bombardment.

For Israel, the existence of such a base makes possible offensive operations difficult. A preemptive strike aimed at neutralizing Iran’s missile capability would need to penetrate the Eagle-44’s defenses and would likely require multiple waves of precision strikes to achieve complete destruction. The time and resources required for such an operation increase the risk and reduce the likelihood of success, especially if Iran retaliates during or after the attack.

Additionally, the Eagle-44’s durability serves as a message to Israel that any attempt to neutralize Iran’s missile capabilities will be met with a prepared and robust response. This could deter the Israeli leadership from launching pre-emptive strikes and force Israel to reconsider its approach to Iran’s missile program.

Psychological Warfare and Deterrence

Iran’s introduction of the Eagle-44 is as much about psychological warfare as it is about military capacity. Already on high alert due to Iran’s advances in missile technology and nuclear enrichment, Israel now faces a visible and tangible representation of Iran’s deterrence strategy. The very existence of the Eagle-44 sends a message to Israeli decision-makers that any attack on Iran will come with a very heavy cost.

This psychological dimension affects not only Israel’s leadership but also its people, potentially heightening fears of retaliatory attacks. The psychological deterrent of a retaliatory attack by Iran could play a role in shaping Israeli public opinion and force Israeli leaders to explore diplomatic avenues rather than escalate the conflict. In the event of an attack, Iran could use its Eagle-44 missile and drone assets to target Israeli cities; This tactic is one that can have a profound impact on Israeli society and security perception.

Ripple Effect

The Eagle-44’s capabilities could also impact Iran’s regional allies, particularly Hezbollah and Syrian groups loyal to Tehran. By strengthening its missile and drone infrastructure, Iran is strengthening its position as a regional power and showing its allies that it has the tools to counter Israeli aggression. Hezbollah, which already has a significant missile stockpile, can improve its deterrent posture by receiving technical and logistical support from Iran’s fortified bases such as Eagle-44.

For Israel, this dynamic creates a multi-front threat that includes the risk of coordinated attacks by Iranian-backed forces in Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iraq. Eagle-44 strengthens Iran’s ability to support its allies and increases Israel’s strategic vulnerability to coordinated regional attacks. This scenario forces Israel to consider not only direct threats from Iran but also broader proxy networks that could be mobilized in a conflict.

The Eagle-44 represents a significant challenge for the United States, which has a strategic interest in curbing Iran’s missile and nuclear ambitions. The base’s resilience to conventional attack means diplomatic efforts or alternative tactics may need to be prioritized. The United States could strengthen missile defense systems in the Gulf region or increase intelligence support to Israel to counterbalance Iran’s missile capabilities.

Israel’s Potential Responses

Faced with the strategic and psychological challenge posed by Eagle-44, Israel may adopt a variety of responses, from cyber warfare to diplomacy. Israel has an advanced cyberwarfare unit that could attempt to disrupt Iran’s command and control systems on the Eagle-44. However, Iran is aware of such capabilities and is investing in cybersecurity to protect its critical military infrastructure.

Another potential response could include increasing intelligence sharing with allies such as the United States to identify weaknesses in Iran’s defenses. Cooperation efforts with the United States and Gulf countries could provide Israel with additional military and economic advantage over Iran. In addition, Israel may intensify its diplomatic efforts to pressure the international community to impose more sanctions on Iran, even though Iran has repeatedly proven its resilience to sanctions.

While Israel is well equipped to conduct surgical strikes on Iranian facilities, the Eagle-44 presents a unique challenge due to its protective terrain and sturdy fortifications. A direct attack on Eagle-44 would likely require a prolonged military intervention that could escalate into a larger regional conflict, something neither Israel nor Iran would prefer.

Broader Implications for US and Gulf Security

The introduction of the Eagle-44 has implications for the United States and Gulf Arab states, many of whom are uneasy about Iran’s growing missile and drone capabilities. Some Gulf countries, which have normalized relations with Israel, see Iran as a common enemy. Eagle-44 could push these countries to strengthen their alliances and explore joint defense initiatives against the Iranian threat.

takeaway

Eagle-44 is much more than a military base; It is the cornerstone of Iran’s deterrence strategy against Israel. With its advanced missile and drone capabilities, fortified location and strategic importance, the Eagle-44 increases Iran’s ability to threaten and deter Israel. It forces Israel to combat a resilient enemy that can launch devastating retaliatory strikes even if its main facilities are attacked.

As the Iran-Israel conflict continues, the Eagle-44 will likely play a central role in shaping both countries’ strategies. The challenge for Israel is clear: finding ways to neutralize or mitigate the threat posed by the Eagle-44 without triggering a large-scale regional war. For Iran, the Eagle-44 symbolizes its determination and ability to withstand and respond to escalating hostilities. The presence of the base will serve as a critical factor in both deterrence and escalation, affecting the Iran-Israel conflict and regional stability in the coming years.

The writer is a columnist, Group Captain (retd) and a former fighter pilot of the IAF. The views expressed in the article above are personal and belong solely to the author. These do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.