It won’t be easy to cancel the 2024 election

An underestimated factor in 2024 right, by the way former President Donald Trump and his closest allies They learned lessons from the failed coup attempt in 2020everyone learned too.

in the first Anniversary of the January 6 attack I wrote it in the US Capitol Ways to protect American democracy I predict there will be another attempt in 2024. I’m pleased to say that most of this has happened.

Voters across the country rejected this proposalelection denier” conspiracy theorists running for election administration positions. Congress reforms Electoral Count ActIt addresses the loopholes that Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on January 6. Dominion voting systemsand Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye MossGive right-wing media a financial deterrent against spreading blatant lies.

The legal system didn’t stop Trump from getting the chance to put himself above the law, but the Justice Department did it successfully. Trial hundreds of January 6 attackers. Some of the most dangerous are in prison, such as militia members convicted of insurrectionary conspiracy. This time they cannot attack, and they are giving an example to others: If Trump becomes president, he can pardon the rioters, if he does not become president, you are in trouble.

The Republican Party purged officials who at least disagreed with Trump’s “big lie” and encouraged their supporters to deny the election results and lie about fraud. And this time, Elon Musk’s X will come up with conspiracy theories and try to incite political violence, as he did recently. made in england

If Trump loses, there is likely to be some degree of violence as Trump and the MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be better prepared. And he’s not the president, so he probably can’t facilitate violence by gathering a crowd on the National Mall in Washington and ordering it. metal detectors removed.

There are bigger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject ballots they do not like or are otherwise trying to suppress. manipulate the process. We could see another fake voter scheme or state legislatures claiming they can invalidate their own electors.

But 2020 fake voters failed and was accusedwith first conviction We are coming this August. To succeed this time, they need their states’ governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even this Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court denied claims state legislative supremacy.

A more sensitive issue is vote counting, especially in swing states where this process can take days. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t start processing mail ballots until Election Day, and Republican-led state legislatures rejected the demands for reform. Trump could try to take advantage of any delay by declaring victory based on partial counts.

However, 2020 was a better environment for this scam. Mail-in voting was heavily tilted towards Democrats because Democrats were taking Covid more seriously than Republicans and Trump was lying about mail-in voting as an excuse to object to the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early and mail voting. And no matter what, a army of lawyers ready to fight in court.

There is a risk of violent demonstrations at vote counting centres. But regions that faced threatening crowds last time are better prepared. For example, Maricopa County, which covers Phoenix and more than half of Arizona’s population, will guard counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. “Election workers” The Wall Street Journal reported“They went through active shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or use fire hoses to repel armed gangs.”

Other swing states should increase security at vote-counting centers, if they have not already done so. Especially in populous areas like Philadelphia and surrounding areas, where counting will take longer.

The biggest risk is that the election comes down to a single state; This limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to disrupt the order. But it will attract huge national attention from all sides, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and the media turning to the state.

Election administration is messy and multi-layered, and a lot is on camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law rather than strike it down. We may not know the winner on Election Night, but in time we will almost certainly have an accurate count and a certified winner.

The positive scenario is that Trump lies about the election results and tries to overthrow democracy with the support of the corporate Republican Party. This might seem surprisingly bad to an American in 2015, but it’s much better than the alternative in 2024.

If he wins, all bets are void. But if he loses, we can take some solace in the fact that it will be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around.